The American Gaming Association has released research finding that gamblers were more likely than non-gamblers to be highly financially literate, while warning that prediction-market users may overestimate their mathematical ability and underestimate risk.
Forty-one percent of gamblers qualified as highly financially literate, compared with 27% of non-gamblers. The study also found that gamblers reported greater confidence in their numerical ability, although their actual mathematics skills were identical to those of non-gamblers.
The AGA said the results point to a potential relationship between financial literacy and responsible play, rather than establishing a causal one. Participants with moderate or high financial literacy recorded significantly higher Positive Play Scores than those with low financial literacy. The Positive Play Scale is a 14-item self-report measure of players’ healthy and responsible-gambling beliefs and behaviours, including gambling literacy, personal responsibility and early intervention.
Casino players recorded the highest Positive Play Scores of any gambling segment, scoring significantly above all others. CDC Gaming suggested this could reflect casino players’ longer exposure to responsible-gambling resources in mature regulated environments, though the research did not establish that explanation.
The study also raised concerns about prediction markets. Sports bettors showed the greatest mathematical confidence and objective ability, while prediction-market users expressed almost as much confidence but performed more like non-gamblers on objective tests. The AGA said this gap between perceived and demonstrated skill raises consumer-protection concerns, particularly where sports wagers are presented as investments or money-making strategies.
David Forman, the AGA’s vice-president of research, said gambling should be promoted and approached as entertainment rather than a financial strategy. The association said consumers who believe they possess an analytical trading advantage may misjudge risk or believe they can outsmart sophisticated counterparties.
The survey was conducted online through Prolific among 3,201 U.S. adults from July 15 to 21. After data-quality screening, the final sample comprised 3,149 people, including 537 sports bettors, 574 prediction-market users, 557 casino players, 495 iGaming users and 986 non-gamblers. Its margin of error was plus or minus two percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
Colin López and Jackson Sears conducted the research and analysis. They are co-founders of the Betting, Experience, and Trading in Sports Research Center and assistant professors at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Among prediction-market respondents, Kalshi and Polymarket were the most-used platforms, with users trading contracts on sports and political events. Thirty-eight percent used one platform, while 31% used two and another 31% used three or more.
